Horse Racing
Here are 10 important factors you can look for when considering which horses to lay:
(1) Gun run last start and fell in – the horse may have a ‘1’ next to it’s name but if it had the absolute perfect run and only just got up, it may well be under the odds today.
(2) End of a long preparation – just like humans, horses can get tired and stale so your lay betting shortlist might include horses that have had more than 5 or 6 starts this prep.
(3) Poor jockey – examples here are the hoop may have a poor record on favourites, at this track, or in the last 30 days. Or today’s jockey may be a downgrade from last start.
(4) Bad barrier – we have mentioned many times that inside barriers are overbet, so consider laying these horses particularly if they are get-back types.
(5) Heavy track – wet going can throw up surprise results so look at those unproven in the ground or with no recent wet track form. Also consider laying horses that raced on a heavy track last start, because that can be a real gut-buster that hinders its chances next time out.
(6) Backmarkers – horses that get back are a layers best friend because they win a much lower percentage of races than on-pace types. The everyday punter loves to back horses with a barnstorming finish, but they’re much more likely to produce a hard luck story than a victory.
(7) Hype horse – boom horses go bust every Saturday and it’s the lay bettor’s job to find those with a possible chink in their armour. Money can be made by going against horses starting short today based only on one good run.
(8) Peak run – don’t assume that a horse is like a machine and will simply reproduce the same effort as last start. Many horses can’t repeat a last start peak and can actually regress many lengths.
(9) Trainer patterns – some trainers have their horses ready to go first up, while others let them find fitness before being at their best 3rd or 4th up. Know your trainers.
(10) Poor sectional times – some horses may have appeared impressive last start at face value, but have run sub-standard times.